预测——听力训练中一项关键的认知技能
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　　听力实际上是训练听的各项技能的综合运用能力,它涉及对语境的体验、听的过程中各种预测活动、对谈话人社会角色的分辨、对情景交流策略的运用等项技能的实际运用。预测则是其中尤其重要的一项关键的认知技能。预测是指听者在做听力理解之前,根据各种暗示,如所给答案选项、段落或对话标题等已有知识,对即将听到的段落或对话内容进行预测;或者在听的过程中,根据已获得的有关信息线索,如标题、主题句、句子结构、词的运用、前后关联、句子的语法关系、语言环境等预测情节的下一步发展或说话人下一步要叙述的内容;有时即使预知错了,也会马上调整,使自己跟上输入的信息。
　　预测必须基于一定的规则,如:语音规则、句法规则、逻辑规则等,换言之,听者在对信息进行深层加工时必须凭借这些规则。因此,在预测技能的培养中,我们也可以从语音、词汇、句法、逻辑关系等不同角度进行考查。
　　1.从答案选项中预测
　　充分利用播放录音之前,以及每段对话之间的短暂时间,快速浏览问题及每题后所给的几个选项,来推断对话的话题和其中的重要信息。如:
　　W:Tom flew to Anchorage last night, then took some passengers from there to Dollas.
　　M:Yeah, but he couldn't land because the airport in Dollas was snowed in.
　　Q:What does Tom do?
　　A. He's a truck driver.
　　B. He's a ship captain.
　　C. He's a pilot. D. He's a cook.
　　从答案选项看,问题应该是关于职业方面的,再从flew, passengers, airport这些信息词中我们可知道他的职业, C为正确答案。
　　2.从话题中预测
　　很多英语听力材料及其它训练材料多以围绕一个话题或一个中心展开,而话题中所包含的信息量足以使学生预测到文中的大致内容。如听到话题"the problems of pollution"之后,我们可对文章内容作以下的预测:
　　Introduction... Kinds of pollution... Results of pollution... What should be done?
　　3.从主题句中预测
　　第一段首句往往是整个语篇的概括或总结,体现了该段(篇)文字的议题和中心。同样,文章每一分段的首句也往往反映了该段的大意。如果将这些首句连起来,便构成了整个语篇的基本框架。
　　4.围绕上下文逐句预测
　　在语言的输入过程中,人们总是不断地对其所听到的或读到的信息作出理解,并随着信息量的增加,对上下文信息进行印证。经印证,正确的理解被保存下来,成为继续听的有利条件;经印证,不正确的理解应得到修正,修正后的正确理解也同样成为继续听的有利条件,并不断地预测下文可能出现的信息。
　　5.根据说话人口气预测
　　在A,B二人的对话中,如果B是附和或赞成,往往说"Yes","I agree","Sure","I think so"等。但如果第一个人用的是否定句,第二个表同意时用"No","Neither/Nor... "等。例如:
　　A:Harvey doesn't seem to fit into this class.
　　B:No, he is really a fish out of water.
　　此外,一般表示不同意或反对时往往会说"No","Not exactly","I don't think so","How can you...?","Why should...?","Why...?"等。
　　"听口气"还应注意一些句型和音调:
　　(1)陈述句用升调带有不明白或怀疑之意,如:"John is from New York?"意为"I didn't know John was from New York". "You really like that novel?"意为"I don't believe you like that novel."
　　(2)否定句用升调带有肯定之意。"You can't do it?"意为"I suppose you can do it. "。还有如读成升调的"Why not...?","Why don't you...?","Isn't it...?","..., won't we?","..., aren't they?" , "..., don't you agree?", "Don't you think?"都表示肯定之意。
　　6.根据词(组)及惯用法的含义预测
　　听力理解中的"解译阶段"不仅包括对词义的认知,而且包括对感知到的语法关系,如词序、时态特征、助动词或情态动词,表示语法关系的"功能词"以及认识到的各种替换形式与他们所指内容之间的关系的认知。
　　(1)功能词。在谈话中,有相当一部分词语用来表示转折、过渡、开头、结束等等,这些词(组)在很大程度上为听者的预测指明方向,如: Tomorrow I'm hoping to make a trip to the beach, but... (预测相反信息)/and... (预测附加信息)/because... (预测原因)。
　　还有其它一些功能词,如:1)重复刚才所讲的内容,且作进一步解释:in other words, that is (to say), that means; 2)对上下文进行概括和总结:in a word, above all; 3)对事物进行列举:for example, such as, first; 4)对上下文进行转折或对比:but, and yet, otherwise/or, on the contrary; 5)引出附加信息:...as well as..., besides, too, either; 6)对上下文语义进行猜测:probably, possibly, it's certain that...; 7)表示因果关系:so, therefore, as a result(of), thus; 8)表示开场白:I'd like to make their points...。
　　(2)指示词。其中代词表现得尤为明显。如:
　　Tom had promised to give a ticket, but last night he rang up to say that he couldn't do that, and this made me very disappointed.
　　Mary passed the college entrence examination, which made her parents pleased.
　　that, this, which常用来指示前文说及的论点或概念。
　　(3)助动词或情态动词。这两种词往往用来指示前文中所给的很长一段信息。如:
　　Sam promised to give me a lift down to Brighton at weekend but last night he rang up to say he can't now.
　　-Must I turn off the power when I finish using the computer after class?
　　-No, you needn't. Tom will use it then.
　　(4)惯用法或特定情境语。利用平时积累的惯用法或特定情境中的习惯用语,预测对话的背景有助于理解谈话的主旨、要义。如:
　　M:When I sell my paintings, I'm going to buy a new car.
　　W:Well, don't count your chickens before they are hatched.
　　Q:What does the woman mean?
　　A. He won't make much money.
　　B. He may not sell his paintings.
　　C. She doesn't want to buy paintings.
　　D. He won't be able to buy a new car.
　　通过理解"Don't count your chickens before they are hatched. "(过早乐观)这一习语,并从"sell paintings","buy a new car"等信息中我们可知道该话题是关于paintings和car的买卖,故选B。
　　7.根据内容对谈话者身份及其关系预测
　　在一般情况下,如果知道谈话者的身份,以及他们之间的相互关系,就可以预知其谈话的内容;相反,知道其谈话内容,也可推断出他们之间的关系,因为谈话的主体在很多情况下具有谈话者的职业特色。如:
　　W:Could you please explain the homework for the next class?
　　M:Sure. Pick out the important persons during the French Revolution and write a paragraph about the persons.
　　Q:What is the probable relationship between the two speakers?
　　A. Customer and clerk.
　　B. Husband and wife.
　　C. Patient and nurse.
　　D. Student and teacher.
　　从homework和class两个词可以判断这是在学校的谈话,并从祈使语气推测说话者是老师,故答案选D。
　　预测是听者在听力训练及听力理解中一种自觉的参与性心理活动,它是一项有效的认知技能,同时也是一种良好的听力习惯。听者只有首先增强这种积极预测的意识,并在听力训练的过程中运用各种预测方法,才能逐渐养成积极有效的听力习惯,掌握听力训练中的预测这一重要的认知技能,才能提高听力的综合运用能力。
　　文/赵昌荣 英语辅导报
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